It’s about time baseball did something to fix one of its biggest problems. No, I’m not talking about steroids, worn-out baseballs, or the Chicago Cubs. It’s the huge competitive advantage some teams have gained simply by being in the right division.
In 1994, Major League Baseball suffered a losing season, ending in August with no playoffs or World Series. That was also the first season in which the American and National leagues were restructured into three-division leagues instead of two. At that time there were 28 teams in the major leagues. With the addition of Tampa Bay and Arizona in 1998, the number of teams reached 30. Although there has been a realignment of teams since then, the basic structure of the league has not changed since 1998.
With 30 teams and six divisions, there must be the same number of teams (five) in each league. This is true for all but two divisions: the NL Central has six teams, while the American League West has four. This may not seem like a big deal until you look at the percentage chance each team has of making the playoffs.
Major League Baseball currently allows eight teams to enter the postseason each year. The winners of the six divisions enter, plus two Wild-Card teams (one from each league). That means (all things being equal) each team should have a 26.67% (8 divided by 30) chance of making the playoffs.
However, in the American League (AL) West there are only four teams. Each team has a chance to enter the playoffs by winning their division or claiming the wild card spot for the American League. Therefore, each AL West team has a 25% (1 in 4) chance of winning their division, plus a 9.1% (1 in 11 non-division winner) chance of claiming the Wild Card spot. . This adds up to a 34.1% chance each AL West team has of making the playoffs. By comparison, each team in the AL East or AL Central has only a 29.1% chance of making the playoffs (20% of winning their division, plus a 9.1% chance of making the wild card). That’s a full 5% competitive advantage AL West teams have over the other two AL divisions.
In the National League, there is a somewhat similar scenario, except that the National League (NL) Central has six teams, while the other two divisions have five. This means that each team in the NL Central only has a 24.4% chance of making the playoffs (16.7% chance of winning their division, plus a 7.7% chance of claiming the title). wildcard spot). NL East and West teams have a 27.7% chance of making the playoffs, so the disparity in the NL is only 3.3% instead of 5 percent.
If you look at all six divisions, you can see the wide gap between the teams in the NL Central and the American League West:
National League
Eastern —– 27.7%
Center — 24.4%
West —– 27.7%
american league
Eastern —– 29.1%
Center — 29.1%
West —– 34.1%
As anyone can see, teams in the American League West have a 9.7% better chance of making the playoffs than teams in the NL Central. Combine this advantage with the fact that two AL West teams (A’s and Angels) have repeatedly dominated the other two division rivals (Mariners and Rangers), and the disparity between the divisions grows even larger. This vast disparity influences the competitive balance to the point where Major League Baseball needs to address the issue.
The solution is relatively simple: Move a team from the NL Central to the American League West. So (all things being equal) all teams have an equal chance of making the playoffs each year. Considering the location and competitive balance, the logical choices for moving to the AL West are either Houston or Chicago. The Cardinals (St. Louis) are usually the best team in the NL Central, while Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are further east than the Cubs or Astros.
Until the issue is resolved, I will enjoy being an Oakland A’s fan even more. See you in the playoffs (again)!