As with all professional gamblers, I use a combination of strategies across different sports in the continual pursuit of long-term betting success. A well-known betting method is Neil Smith’s Value Horse method, but does it work? Read on to find my personal take on this method.
For starters, the foundations of the method lie in a classic betting technique often referred to as “every way robbery” or practiced by “every way thieves”. It revolves around the basic math of betting each way, and an anomaly that has opened up with the advent of betting exchanges that allows you to structure a bet that produces a return greater than the actual odds of the event occurring. In essence, providing a value bet – hence the name. Depending on how you view the race, the method and stakes can be adjusted to structure the bet and return an equal win regardless of who wins, or skew the return towards a place or a win for the horse.
Well, in theory the math is flawless, but how does it work in practice? One thing to keep in mind is the effect non-runners can have on returns if they reduce the number of places the bookmaker will pay from 4 to 3 or from 3 to 2. For this reason, when I use it, I will try to place my bets as close to the start time as possible if the withdrawal of 1 broker could jeopardize my returns. When the withdrawal of 1 or more brokers will not reduce the terms of the venue, this is less of an issue.
However, there are drawbacks you will have to work to avoid, the main one being that it works! The “anomaly of every sense” is something that bookies are very aware of, and if you abuse this method, you will soon find that the bookies will start to restrict the amount you can bet with them. It is a good problem, but it is not of much use if you are trying to make money. However, this can be avoided by distributing the bet between different bookmakers and rotating their use along with other methods so that you “give back” to the bookmaker, or so he thinks.
Also, the logic behind the method can be extended to other sporting events. Personally, I have even used the method to secure guaranteed winnings on everything from the Eurovision song contest to various tennis tournaments. The method is also the ideal tool to improve the return you can get from ranked bets, where you use introductory bonuses given by bookmakers to guarantee winnings. The fact that many bookmakers offer a “best odds guarantee” can also dramatically increase winnings if the price of horses drifts after you have placed your bets.
The Value Horse method is also available as an automated software application that does all the hard work for you, finds the applicable bets, and calculates the amounts you need to bet to guarantee the winnings you need.
In conclusion, the answer therefore has to be yes, the Value Horse method is a worthy weapon for any player to have in their arsenal in the ongoing war against the bookmakers.